Application and validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector     

Isabel Seifert  Heidi Kreibich  Bruno Merz  Annegret H. Thieken 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1315-1324

Abstract

The estimation of flood loss is difficult, especially in the commercial sector, because of its great inhomogeneity. However, the reliability of loss modelling is fairly unknown, since flood-loss models are scarcely validated. The newly developed Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was validated on the micro-scale using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure. Additionally, different meso-scale loss functions were compared. Meso-scale model application was undertaken in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood in Germany. Model results were compared with the results of three other loss models, as well as with official loss records. The micro-scale validation shows very good results, with no bias and mean absolute errors between 23 and 31%. The meso-scale validation indicates that FLEMOcs provides good results, especially in large areas with many affected companies where high losses are expected.

Citation Seifert, I., Kreibich, H., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Application and validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1315–1324.  相似文献   

Effects of seawater acidification on early development of the intertidal sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Lamarck 1816)     

Laure Moulin  Ana Isabel Catarino  Thomas Claessens  Philippe Dubois 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(1):48-54

The effect of pH ranging from 8.0 to 6.8 (total scale - pH_T) on fertilization, cleavage and larval development until pluteus stage was assessed in an intertidal temperate sea urchin. Gametes were obtained from adults collected in two contrasting tide pools, one showing a significant nocturnal pH decrease (lowest pH_T = 7.4) and another where pH was more stable (lowest pH_T = 7.8). The highest pH_T at which significant effects on fertilization and cleavage were recorded was 7.6. On the contrary, larval development was only affected below pH_T 7.4, a value equal or lower than that reported for several subtidal species. This suggests that sea urchins inhabiting stressful intertidal environments produce offspring that may better resist future ocean acidification. Moreover, at pH_T 7.4, the fertilization rate of gametes whose progenitors came from the tide pool with higher pH decrease was significantly higher, indicating a possible acclimatization or adaptation of gametes to pH stress.  相似文献   

Patterns of rare earth and other trace elements in different size fractions of clays of Campanian–Maastrichtian deposits from the Portuguese western margin (Aveiro and Taveiro Formations)     

Rosa Marques  M. Isabel Prudêncio  M. Isabel Dias  Fernando Rocha 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2011,71(4):337-347

The Upper Cretaceous (Campanian–Maastrichtian) Taveiro and Aveiro Formations belong to the northern sector of the Lusitanian basin (Portuguese western margin). The Taveiro Formation was deposited in alluvial fans, including mud flow beds, lakes and sinuous rivers. The Aveiro Formation was deposited in a flat region with low hydrodynamics channels, with the formation of a barrier island-tidal system. The reconstruction of this sedimentary basin may be difficult due to its complex architecture. This work aims a methodology to be used in the reconstruction of Cretaceous sedimentary environments of the Lusitanian basin, through the establishment of geochemical patterns of different size fractions of those deposits. Chemical analysis was performed by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA), and the mineralogical composition obtained by X-ray diffractometry (XRD). The whole rock and different size fractions (? ≥ 125 μm, 63–125 μm, 20–63 μm, 2–20 μm and ? < 2 μm) of selected samples were studied aiming the rare earth elements (REE) and other trace elements distribution and its correlation with the grain size and mineralogy.The results obtained for the studied Cretaceous sediments showed that REE patterns and other trace elements distribution in the different size fractions may be used as a tool to differentiate deposits within and between sedimentary formations. Within the Taveiro Formation, REE are concentrated in the silt fractions (20–63 μm and 2–20 μm) of the Reveles deposit, and in the clay size fraction of S. Pedro deposit, which is richer in kaolinite. The 1st transition elements, particularly Zn, are correlated with the presence of smectite in the clay fraction of Reveles deposit. In the sand and silt size fractions (>2 μm) of samples from Taveiro Formation correlations were found between: Ga and 1st transition elements, and phyllosilicates; Cs and mica; and Rb and Ba, and K–feldspars.The Bustos deposit (Aveiro Formation) samples are very fine-grained and with a high proportion of the fine silt fraction where REE are concentrated, especially the heavy ones. Incorporation of MREE, Co and U in carbonates of the coarser fraction appears to occur. The abundances of the 1st transition elements, Ga and As, are correlated with phyllosilicates.Significant differences were found in the trace elements patterns of the various analysed size fractions of the Lusitanian basin of Cretaceous sediments, between and even within formations, which can be used as a methodological approach for a fine paleogeographic reconstruction.  相似文献   

Spatial gradients in plant leaf wax D/H across a coastal salt marsh in southern California     

Isabel C. Romero  Sarah J. Feakins 《Organic Geochemistry》2011,42(6):618-629

Coastal salt marsh ecosystems contain strong environmental gradients that are anticipated to influence the D/H ratios recorded in the leaf waxes of salt-tolerant plants. We characterized the molecular and hydrogen isotopic composition of alkanes in plant and sediment samples as well as the D/H ratios of environmental and plant waters across an elevation and inundation gradient in a southern Californian, coastal salt marsh. We sampled the dominant salt marsh plant species: Salicornia virginica, Arthrocnemum subterminale and Jamuea carnosa (all succulents), as well as Monanthochloe littoralis and Limonium californicum (nonsucculents). Plant xylem water hydrogen isotopic compositions indicate a shift in source waters from meteoric influences at upland sites (δD value −20‰) to seawater dominated values (0‰) at lowland areas. We found leaf water D enrichment relative to xylem water ranging from mean δD values of +54‰ (upland) to +28‰ (lowland), interpreted as a reduction of transpiration with increasing inundation time. This has the effect of increasing the net fractionation between source water and leaf wax product across the environmental gradient from mean values of −101‰ (upland) to −134‰ (lowland), with an attenuated signal recorded in the δD values of plant leaf wax n-alkanes (−122‰ to −136‰). These results constrain the hydrogen isotopic composition of salt marsh organic matter that may contribute to marine carbon budgets of the Santa Barbara Basin, and further indicate the potential for plant leaf waxes to resolve paleoenvironmental change, including sea level change, in sediment cores from salt marsh ecosystems.  相似文献   

Petrogenetic links between lepidolite-subtype aplite-pegmatite,aplite veins and associated granites at Segura (central Portugal)     

Isabel Margarida Horta Ribeiro Antunes  Ana Margarida Ribeiro Neiva  João Manuel Farinha Ramos  Paulo Bravo Silva  Maria Manuela Vinha Guerreiro Silva  Fernando Corfu 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2013

In the Segura area, Variscan S-type granites, aplite veins and lepidolite-subtype granitic aplite-pegmatite veins intruded the Cambrian schist-metagraywacke complex. The granites are syn D3. Aplite veins also intruded the granites. Two-mica granite and muscovite granite have similar ages of 311.0 ± 0.5 Ma and 312.9 ± 2.0 Ma but are not genetically related, as indicated by their geochemical characteristics and (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)₃₁₁ values. They correspond to distinct pulses of magma derived by partial melting of heterogeneous metapelitic rocks. Major and trace elements suggest fractionation trends for: (a) muscovite granite and aplite veins; (b) two-mica granite and lepidolite-subtype aplite-pegmatite veins, but with a gap in most of these trends. Least square analysis for major elements, and modeling of trace elements, indicate that the aplite veins were derived from the muscovite granite magma by fractional crystallization of quartz, plagioclase, K-feldspar and ilmenite. This is supported by the similar (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)₃₁₁ and δ¹⁸O values and the behavior of P₂O₅ in K-feldspar and albite. The decrease in (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)₃₁₁ and strong increase (1.6‰) in δ¹⁸O from two-mica granite to lepidolite-subtype aplite-pegmatite veins, and the behaviors of Ca, Mn and F of hydroxylapatite indicate that these veins are not related to the two-mica granite.  相似文献   

Essential (Se, Cu) and non-essential (Ag, Hg, Cd) elements: What are their relationships in liver of Sotalia guianensis (Cetacea, Delphinidae)?     

Tércia G. Seixas  Helena A. Kehrig  Cristina M.M. Souza  Isabel Moreira 《Marine pollution bulletin》2009,58(4):629-634

  相似文献   

Ground motions observed during the 15 August 2007 Pisco, Peru, earthquake     

Hernando Tavera  Isabel Bernal  Fleur O. Strasser  Maria C. Arango-Gaviria  John E. Alarcón  Julian J. Bommer 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2009,7(1):71-111

A M_w 7.9 earthquake event occurred on 15 August 2007 off the coast of central Peru, 60 km west of the city of Pisco. This event is associated with subduction processes at the interface of the Nazca and South American plates, and was characterised by a complex source mechanism involving rupture on two main asperities, with unilateral rupture propagation to the southeast. The rupture process is clearly reflected in the ground motions recorded during this event, which include two separate episodes of strong shaking. The event triggered 18 accelerographic stations; the recordings are examined in terms of their characteristics and compared to the predictions of ground-motion prediction equations for subduction environments, using the maximum-likelihood-based method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(6):2164–2185, 2004). Additionally, macroseismic observations and damage patterns are examined and discussed in the light of local construction practices, drawing on field observations gathered during the post-earthquake reconnaissance missions.  相似文献   

Depth of closure: New calculation method based on sediment data     

Luis Aragonés  Jose Ignacio Pagán  Isabel López  José C.Serra 《国际泥沙研究》2018,33(2):198-207

Obtaining depth of closure (DoC) in an accurate manner is a fundamental issue for coastal engineering, since good results for coastal structures and beach nourishment depend mainly on DoC. Currently, there are two methods for obtaining the DoC, mathematical formulations and profile surveys. However, these methods can incur important errors if one does not take into account the characteristics and morphology of the area, or if one does not have a sufficiently long time series. In this work the DoC is obtained from the break in the trend of the sediment with the depth, that is, in general with the increase of the depth a decrease in the size of the sediment takes place. However, at one point this tendency changes and the size increases, and then decreases again. When comparing the point where the minimum sediment size occurs before the increase, it is observed that the error incurred is small compared to other methods. If the Standard Deviation of Depth Change (SDDC) method is considered as the most accurate method, the error incurred by the proposed method is less than 7%. In addition, it can be seen that the dispersion of the sediment method always occurs outside the zone of bar movement. Whereas in the methods of profiles survey (using 2 cm precision profiles), sometimes the DoC is obtained within the active zone of bar movement. In addition, where the relative minimum of the median sediment size is found, and the sizes of 0.063 and 0.125 mm predominate in the composition of the sample. Therefore, this new method allows the precise location of the DoC to be obtained in a fast and simple way. Furthermore, this method has the advantage that it is not affected by the modifications that may be experienced by both the study area and the cross-shore beach profile.  相似文献   

Late Pleistocene–Holocene environmental and climatic history of a freshwater paramo ecosystem in the northern Andes     

Luisa Patiño  Maria Isabel Velez  Marion Weber  César A. Velásquez-r  Santiago David  Manuela Rueda  Ivonne Castañeda  Diana Arboleda 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(8):1046-1056

This study presents the first multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic history for northern South America based on the palaeolimnological reconstruction of a pond located in a dry paramo at 3570 masl. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the study area was under glacial conditions, then during global events Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), Bølling–Allerød (BA), and the Younger Dryas (YD), the pond expanded, accumulation rates and proxies for erosion reached the highest values, indicative of humid conditions, with maxima in humidity during the BA and YD. Dry conditions and pond desiccation occurred in the Greenlandian–Northgrippian and by 6010 cal a bp the area was transformed into the mire of today. Comparisons with records from other sites in South America indicate that changes in humidity are most likely controlled by the Intertropical Convergence Zone, mainly during the glacial and postglacial, and by changes in the Pacific Ocean, more pronounced after the YD.  相似文献   

Monitoring of mercury and other metals mobility by sequential fractionation in soils nearby an abandoned chlor-alkali plant in Managua (Nicaragua)     

Rodolfo Fernández-Martínez  Belén Gómez-Mancebo  Emilio J. Peña  Pilar Galán  Akito Matsuyama  Fernando García  Isabel Rucandio 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(6):538

  相似文献